Sevilla HT/FT Stats: Strong at Home, Far Less Secure on the Road
Sevilla's half-time leads are far sturdier at home than on the road. This file tracks where the HT/FT outcomes sit, how the price shapes them, and how the trend has moved.
- Market
- HT/FT
- On file
- Sevilla: 760 La Liga matches with a recorded half-time score, 2005/06–2025/26 (20 seasons); league comparison from 6,840 other La Liga matches in the same seasons
- Question
- How different are Sevilla's half-time/full-time results at home and away, and how often do away leads slip?
- E182.9%home half-time leads turned into wins
- E269.8%away half-time leads turned into wins
- E333.2%Win/Win rate at home (led at HT and won)
- E4760La Liga matches analysed
This file sits alongside my half-time/full-time tips page and covers one club: Sevilla, across 760 La Liga matches with a recorded half-time score. The question is simple. How different do Sevilla look at home and away once the break arrives, and how often does an away lead slip?
The headline answer is quite different. At home Sevilla turned 82.9% of half-time leads into wins. Away that fell to 69.8%. They led and won in 33.2% of home matches, well clear of the 27.9% for other La Liga hosts. On the road the picture is closer to ordinary, with a few useful quirks.
Exhibit AHalf-time leads hold far better at home than away
This chart shows what happened at full time from each half-time position, split by venue. Leading at home (n=152), Sevilla won 82.9%, drew 12.5% and lost just 4.6%. Leading away (n=96), they won 69.8%, drew 17.7% and lost 12.5%, so an away lead was lost far more often.
The level rows tell the same story more loudly. Level at the break at home, Sevilla went on to win 50.9%. Level away, they won only 30.6% and lost 36.9%, so an away stalemate leaned slightly towards defeat. Behind at half-time, comebacks were rare at either venue: 11.6% at home (n=69) and 7.3% away.
N = matches in that half-time state. Small rows (n under 100) are noisy.
View the data: what sevilla did after each half-time position
| Won | Drew | Lost | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Led at HT, home (n=152) | 82.9% | 12.5% | 4.6% |
| Led at HT, away (n=96) | 69.8% | 17.7% | 12.5% |
| Level at HT, home (n=159) | 50.9% | 28.3% | 20.8% |
| Level at HT, away (n=160) | 30.6% | 32.5% | 36.9% |
| Behind at HT, home (n=69) | 11.6% | 21.7% | 66.7% |
| Behind at HT, away (n=124) | 7.3% | 21.0% | 71.8% |
Across all venues Sevilla held 77.8% of 248 half-time leads, against 75.7% for other clubs, which is only a touch better than average. The home figure does the heavy lifting. To me that says their second-half control is mostly a home-ground habit rather than something they carry everywhere.
Exhibit BAway, Sevilla lose heavily less often than typical visitors
Here every HT/FT outcome for Sevilla away sits against the La Liga average for away sides. Sevilla's Win/Win rate was 17.6% (±3.8 points), a little above the league's 15.5%, and the range overlaps it comfortably. I would not build anything on that gap alone.
The clearer difference is at the bottom. Lose/Lose came up 23.4% of the time against 27.9% for the league, the biggest shortfall on the chart. Sevilla also went Draw/Win slightly more often (12.9% against 10.9%) and Lose/Draw more often too (6.8% against 4.8%).
95% ranges on the club rate.
View the data: sevilla vs la liga average, away matches
| League average | Sevilla | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win/Win (67 of 380) | 15.5% | 17.6% | ±3.8 |
| Draw/Win (49 of 380) | 10.9% | 12.9% | ±3.4 |
| Lose/Win (9 of 380) | 1.9% | 2.4% | ±1.5 |
| Win/Draw (17 of 380) | 4.7% | 4.5% | ±2.1 |
| Draw/Draw (52 of 380) | 15.6% | 13.7% | ±3.5 |
| Lose/Draw (26 of 380) | 4.8% | 6.8% | ±2.5 |
| Win/Lose (12 of 380) | 2.5% | 3.2% | ±1.8 |
| Draw/Lose (59 of 380) | 16.1% | 15.5% | ±3.6 |
| Lose/Lose (89 of 380) | 27.9% | 23.4% | ±4.3 |
So the away Sevilla profile is not a dominant one, but it is a resilient one. They are less likely than a typical visitor to be behind and stay behind, and somewhat more likely to recover something late.
Exhibit CThe pre-match price shapes Sevilla's Win/Win rate sharply
This table groups matches by Sevilla's own pre-match win price from a major bookmaker. Priced under 1.80 (241 matches), they had a priced win chance of 61.9% and actually won 67.6%. Win/Win landed 40.7% of the time, a fair price of 2.46, and they held 89.9% of half-time leads.
Further up the price ladder things thin out quickly. In the 1.80–2.19 band Win/Win fell to 24.4% (fair 4.10). In the 2.20–2.99 band Sevilla led at the break 31.0% of the time and held 69.8% of those 63 leads, with Win/Win at 21.7% (fair 4.61). At 3.00+ Win/Win managed only 9.9% (fair 10.10), and they won 19.9% against a priced 21.9%.
| Club price | Matches | Priced win | Won | Win/Win | Fair W/W | Held HT lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.80 | 241 | 61.9% | 67.6% | 40.7% | 2.46 | 89.9% |
| 1.80–2.19 | 135 | 47.7% | 45.9% | 24.4% | 4.10 | 78.6% |
| 2.20–2.99 | 203 | 38.0% | 38.9% | 21.7% | 4.61 | 69.8% |
| 3.00+ | 181 | 21.9% | 19.9% | 9.9% | 10.10 | 52.9% |
Priced win = margin removed. Held HT lead = won after leading at the break.
Two things stand out to me. As favourites under 1.80 Sevilla won rather more often than the price suggested. As outsiders their leads became fragile, with only 52.9% held, so an early goal at a long price is far from the end of the story.
Exhibit DSevilla's Win/Win rate has drifted down in recent seasons
The line tracks Win/Win and the share of matches led at half-time, season by season. The best Win/Win season was 2007/08 at 42.1%, with 2009/10 and 2014/15 both at 39.5%. The half-time lead rate peaked at 47.4% in 2009/10.
Recent seasons sit noticeably lower. Win/Win was 13.2% in both 2022/23 and 2024/25, and the latest season in the file, 2025/26, came in at 10.5%, with Sevilla leading at the break in just 21.1% of matches. The data also holds no La Liga matches for 2006/07, so that gap on the axis is missing data, not a quiet year.
About 38 matches per season, so single seasons swing widely.
View the data: sevilla win/win rate, season by season
| Sevilla Win/Win | Sevilla led at HT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 31.6% | 36.8% |
| 2007/08 | 42.1% | 44.7% |
| 2008/09 | 21.1% | 23.7% |
| 2009/10 | 39.5% | 47.4% |
| 2010/11 | 31.6% | 42.1% |
| 2011/12 | 26.3% | 34.2% |
| 2012/13 | 28.9% | 36.8% |
| 2013/14 | 34.2% | 39.5% |
| 2014/15 | 39.5% | 47.4% |
| 2015/16 | 18.4% | 28.9% |
| 2016/17 | 21.1% | 28.9% |
| 2017/18 | 21.1% | 23.7% |
| 2018/19 | 21.1% | 23.7% |
| 2019/20 | 23.7% | 34.2% |
| 2020/21 | 23.7% | 31.6% |
| 2021/22 | 26.3% | 34.2% |
| 2022/23 | 13.2% | 26.3% |
| 2023/24 | 21.1% | 28.9% |
| 2024/25 | 13.2% | 18.4% |
| 2025/26 | 10.5% | 21.1% |
Each season is only about 38 matches, so single points swing widely. Still, the lower run is long enough that I would weight recent form over the twenty-season average. That is the main caveat for the whole file: these are historical rates, not a system, and squads and coaches change.
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Favour Sevilla's home leads
At home Sevilla turned 82.9% of half-time leads into wins and lost only 4.6%. Away that hold rate dropped to 69.8%, so treat an away lead with more caution.
- Check the price band first
Under 1.80 Win/Win came up 40.7% of the time, a fair price of 2.46. At 3.00+ it fell to 9.9%, fair 10.10, so the market band matters more than the club badge.
- Weight recent seasons more
Win/Win dropped to 10.5% in 2025/26 from a peak of 42.1% in 2007/08. With about 38 matches a season, read the trend rather than any single year.
Questions bettors ask
How often do Sevilla win after leading at half-time?
Overall Sevilla held 77.8% of 248 half-time leads to win. At home the figure was 82.9% and away it was 69.8%.
What is Sevilla's Home/Home (Win/Win) rate at home?
Sevilla led at half-time and won in 33.2% of 380 home matches, which is 126 times. Other La Liga sides playing at home managed 27.9%.
Do Sevilla come back when level at half-time away?
Level at the break away (n=160), Sevilla won 30.6%, drew 32.5% and lost 36.9%. At home from the same position they won 50.9%.
I'm Nadia Whitcombe, and I focus on Half-Time/Full-Time markets, where you can't just ask who wins but have to picture how the ninety minutes actually unfolds.
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