Valencia BTTS Stats: Fair Odds, Opponents and Common Scorelines
Valencia's La Liga games have produced goals at both ends slightly more often than the league norm. Here are the fair prices, the opponent splits and the scorelines behind it.
- Market
- BTTS
- On file
- Valencia La Liga matches 2005/06–2025/26, 760 matches in 20 seasons (no top-flight data for 2006/07); league baseline 7,600 La Liga matches in the same seasons
- Question
- What are fair both-teams-to-score odds for Valencia league matches, and how do opponent strength and scorelines shape the rate?
- E154.3%BTTS rate in 760 La Liga matches
- E21.84fair BTTS Yes odds on the overall rate
- E32.19fair BTTS No odds on the overall rate
- E41-1most common BTTS score
Valencia have always struck me as a side whose matches rarely stay tidy. I wanted to test that against the record: 760 La Liga matches from 2005/06–2025/26, set against a league baseline of 7,600 matches in the same seasons. This file sits alongside my both teams to score tips page as the reference I check before Valencia kick off.
The headline answer is that both teams scored in 54.3% of Valencia league matches, compared with a La Liga average of 51.0%. That converts to fair odds of 1.84 for Yes and 2.19 for No. The edge over the league is real but modest, and what surprised me most is how little the rate moves with venue or with Valencia's status in the betting.
Exhibit AFair BTTS prices barely shift across situations
This table turns each hit rate into the price that would break even with no bookmaker margin. At home the rate is 54.7% across 380 matches, giving fair Yes odds of 1.83. Away it is 53.9% across 380 matches, giving 1.85. That is about as flat a venue split as I see for any club.
The market status split is just as level. As favourite under 2.00 the rate is 54.1% in 244 matches, and when not favourite it is 54.5% in 516. Being fancied doesn't seem to make Valencia shut games down, and being the underdog doesn't make them more porous.
| Situation | Matches | BTTS Yes | Fair Yes | Fair No | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All matches | 760 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 2.19 | ±3.5 |
| Home | 380 | 54.7% | 1.83 | 2.21 | ±5.0 |
| Away | 380 | 53.9% | 1.85 | 2.17 | ±5.0 |
| As favourite (under 2.00) | 244 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 2.18 | ±6.3 |
| Not favourite (2.00+) | 516 | 54.5% | 1.84 | 2.20 | ±4.3 |
| Latest 5 seasons in record (2021/22–2025/26) | 190 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 2.16 | ±7.1 |
Fair odds = 1 / observed rate. A price above the fair Yes figure would have offered value on these rates.
The latest five seasons, 2021/22–2025/26, sit at 53.7% in 190 matches with fair Yes at 1.86, but the 95% range there is ±7.1. With a sample that small I treat it as roughly in line with the long-run figure, not as evidence that anything has changed.
Exhibit BValencia ran above the league in most seasons
This chart plots Valencia's BTTS rate minus the La Liga average for each of the last 16 seasons. Valencia finished above the league line in 11 of the 16 seasons shown, and the all-seasons gap is +3.3 points. The long stretch from 2013/14 onwards is striking: 13.4 points above in 2013/14, 12.3 in 2016/17 and 11.3 in 2017/18.
The swings are large in both directions. The widest positive gap was +14.5 points in 2021/22, when Valencia hit 63.2% against a league figure of 48.7%. Two seasons later, in 2023/24, the gap was −7.4, with 42.1% against 49.5%.
Last 16 seasons shown; total covers all 20.
View the data: valencia vs the league, season by season
| Gap to league | |
|---|---|
| 2010/11 | +2.3 pts |
| 2011/12 | −0.8 pts |
| 2012/13 | −3.4 pts |
| 2013/14 | +13.4 pts |
| 2014/15 | +8.5 pts |
| 2015/16 | +2.3 pts |
| 2016/17 | +12.3 pts |
| 2017/18 | +11.3 pts |
| 2018/19 | +0.8 pts |
| 2019/20 | +5.6 pts |
| 2020/21 | +11.4 pts |
| 2021/22 | +14.5 pts |
| 2022/23 | −0.3 pts |
| 2023/24 | −7.4 pts |
| 2024/25 | +3.7 pts |
| 2025/26 | −1.3 pts |
| All 20 seasons | +3.3 pts |
For me this is the main caveat in practical form. These are base rates from past squads and coaches, and a single season can drift a long way from the average, so I check how the current side is set up defensively rather than assume the history repeats.
Exhibit CStrong opponents push the rate highest
Here each opponent is placed by its final position in a table rebuilt from that season's results, then split into thirds. Against the top third, BTTS landed in 57.2% of 222 matches: 57.7% at home and 56.8% away. That is the hottest row on the chart, and it makes sense. Good attacks tend to find a way past Valencia, and Valencia usually have to come out and chase.
The middle third is the coolest, at 52.3% across 260 matches, with the same figure home and away. Against the bottom third the rate is 54.0% in 278 matches, 54.7% at home and 53.2% away.
Thirds of each season's final table. Smallest cell: 111 matches.
View the data: valencia btts by opponent strength
| Home | Away | All | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs top third | 57.7% | 56.8% | 57.2% |
| vs middle third | 52.3% | 52.3% | 52.3% |
| vs bottom third | 54.7% | 53.2% | 54.0% |
The smallest cell still holds 111 matches, so none of these figures rests on a handful of games. The differences are moderate, though. I read the top-third row as a gentle lean towards Yes rather than a separate market.
Exhibit DMost BTTS games end 1-1 or one-goal wins
This chart shows which BTTS scorelines turn up, as a share of all 760 Valencia matches, with Valencia goals first. 1-1 leads at 13.0%, followed by 2-1 at 9.5% and 1-2 at 7.8%. 2-2 comes next at 6.4%, and after that every scoreline is a long way back.
Of the 413 matches where both teams scored, 24.0% finished 1-1 and Valencia won 34.1%. So when both sides find the net, the usual Valencia game is tight and low-scoring rather than a shootout.
413 of 760 matches had both teams scoring.
View the data: the btts scorelines in valencia matches
| Share of all Valencia league matches, Valencia goals first | |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
| 2-2 | 6.4% |
| 3-1 | 3.4% |
| 1-3 | 2.4% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% |
| 3-2 | 2.1% |
That matters for anyone pairing BTTS with other markets. Many of these games produce exactly one goal each, so BTTS Yes and a high goal line are not the same bet here.
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Anchor on 1.84
The long-run fair Yes price is 1.84. Only a price above that figure would have offered value on these rates, so anything shorter needs a specific reason.
- Ignore the venue
Home at 54.7% and away at 53.9% are effectively the same. Don't pay a premium for BTTS Yes just because Valencia are travelling.
- Lean Yes against contenders
Against top-third opponents the rate rises to 57.2% across 222 matches. Fixtures against the stronger sides are where I'd look hardest at Yes.
Questions bettors ask
How often do both teams score in Valencia matches?
Both teams scored in 54.3% of Valencia's 760 La Liga matches from 2005/06–2025/26. The La Liga average over the same seasons was 51.0%.
What are fair BTTS odds for Valencia?
On the overall rate, fair odds are 1.84 for BTTS Yes and 2.19 for BTTS No. These figures carry no bookmaker margin, so real prices will usually sit shorter.
What is the most common BTTS score in Valencia games?
1-1 is the most common, at 13.0% of all Valencia league matches. Of the 413 matches where both teams scored, 24.0% ended 1-1.
I'm Rosa Whitman, a betting writer who's narrowed right down to Both Teams To Score markets, where patient research into goal patterns tends to pay off.
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